Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Where will the Hurricane be?

I feel with certainty that sometime over the next 7 to 14 days there will be a hurricane that either directly impacts or comes close to impacting the U.S.  The problem is, it's so far out that we have absolutely no idea as to where a possible landfall would be.  So many variables are out there.  Even 12 hours before a hurricane makes landfall, sometimes it makes an erratic change in direction and hits and area thought to be safe.

Having all that said, I would like to show you 4 different model runs of the GFS (Global Forecasting System).  It's a computer model that we use every day.  It's one of about 10 models, but it's at least in the top 5 as far as accuracy goes.  It comes out four times a day.  Below is a look at where it thinks the hurricane will be on the 30th.  Keep in mind, this is the same model, it's just changing its mind every hours; and people wonder why meteorologists like us change our minds so much.


These images (put together the way they are) are courtesy of WeatherMatrix.
You can click the image for a larger view.

As you can see, the model agrees we will have a strong hurricane, but where does it go?

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