Update

I sincerely apologize for starting a page like this and then suddenly stopping updating it.  Two words.  Life happened.  I have some things I have to work out before weather can again be a top priority in my life.  I think God wants weather in my life, I'm just not sure at what degree (no pun intended).  In all honesty I wish I could pinch myself and take my love of weather away.  Life would be easier that way.  I can't though.  I love weather. I love everything about it.  Why does something I love cause me so much pain?  This will pass.  I will forecast again.  I will post again.  Please don't give up on me.

-Jonathan

Who saw this coming?

No one.  No one thought we'd have showers in western AL today but I'm inclined to believe we may even have a t-storm or two later today.  The chance of rain is around 20 to 30 percent, but still that's a whole different deal than what was expected.  Check out the graphical forecast from the NWS in Birmingham below.

A little late...

I know this article is a bit late in arriving but it was written on August 4th, well before this website was in existence.  It has some interesting reading about the Hurricane Season that we are currently dealing with.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110804_update_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html

Tropical Troubles

The man computer models we use are in unusual agreement about the fact that a major hurricane will develop and impact the Gulf of Mexico in some way.  Some models show one way, some show another.  Either way, the weekend of Friday the 26th through Sunday the 28th will be a long weekend for those of us who follow weather and most certainly for those who end up in the path of what will probably one day be called Harvey.  Keep in mind, this thing is at least 10 days away from the U.S.  I do want to show you what one computer model (a very reliable one) things will be going on, on Sunday the 28th.  Talk about a drought buster!  This thing is down right scary.  It would be a CAT 3 or higher storm if it manifested itself the way this and most models indicate it will.

Let's just hope this model is wrong in many ways.

-Jonathan

Where will the Hurricane be?

I feel with certainty that sometime over the next 7 to 14 days there will be a hurricane that either directly impacts or comes close to impacting the U.S.  The problem is, it's so far out that we have absolutely no idea as to where a possible landfall would be.  So many variables are out there.  Even 12 hours before a hurricane makes landfall, sometimes it makes an erratic change in direction and hits and area thought to be safe.

Having all that said, I would like to show you 4 different model runs of the GFS (Global Forecasting System).  It's a computer model that we use every day.  It's one of about 10 models, but it's at least in the top 5 as far as accuracy goes.  It comes out four times a day.  Below is a look at where it thinks the hurricane will be on the 30th.  Keep in mind, this is the same model, it's just changing its mind every hours; and people wonder why meteorologists like us change our minds so much.

These images (put together the way they are) are courtesy of WeatherMatrix.

You can click the image for a larger view.

As you can see, the model agrees we will have a strong hurricane, but where does it go?

How low will it go?

With high pressure overhead, calm winds, and no cloud cover temperatures should fall into the upper 50s and lower 60 tomorrow morning.  Let me know how low it gets where you live!  Just post your Tuesday morning low temperatures in the comment section!

Also, it's now worth mentioning that I am monitoring a tropical wave in the lower latitudes of the Atlantic.  If something is still out there tomorrow I will start posting graphical images for you.  It "could" be our next tropical system.  What catches my eye the most is two fold:  one, it already looks like a tropical depression on satellite, and number two, it's such a low latitudinal  storm.  It would have a better chance of making it into the Gulf IF and only IF it develops.  We shall see!  Either way, you know I'll be here to let you know about it.

Speaking of knowing about things.  Tell your friends about my new website.  Send them and e-mail and tell them to mark it in their favorites.  While you are at it, mark it in YOUR favorites too!

-Jonathan

Sneak Peak at Tuesday High Temperatures

Although it will be warmer, the humidity will still be relatively low for this time of the year.

You can't beat this with a stick! What month is again? It's alright, I think we deserve it.

Get out and enjoy it!  In my case you can get out and enjoy mowing the grass, if enjoying doing such a thing is possible!  "Weather" or not, have a great day!

Would you like to advertise your business?

Based on the fact that I just fully completed this website this morning and the outrageous number of hits we have already received, I am anticipating over 1000 hits per day by the end of the week and from there?  I think this website can go anywhere.  Everyone wants to know what the weather is doing.  Everyone that wants to know will see your advertisement.  Let me know if you are interested and we will talk prices and we will get this started.  I'm excited about it.  I recommend you contact me on my yahoo mail actually.  jonb1999@yahoo.com is the e-mail address.  I look forward to hearing from you very soon!  Again, this is only the beginning!

Front finally dropping southward...

As it does so, slightly cooler and less humid air will be here in the morning to replace it.  Doesn't 60 degrees sound great?!?!?

Here's the overall deal through around 5:00 P.M. today!

More scattered showers and t-storms than originally anticipated as our "cool front" is taking its time in dropping southward.  Have I mentioned lately that weather is NOT an exact science?

Look out Fulton Bridge, Yamptertown, Winfield, Guin, and Glen Allen

You have a rapidly developing storm coming at your from the NW and should be arriving where you live within the hour.  I expect the lightning to really pick up with this storm as it moves off to the southeast at around 20 to 25 MPH.  By the way, my radar has suggested it will arrive in Guin at exactly 3:38 this afternoon.  We shall see!

Click the radar box above for a much more detailed look at where the storms are/were located at the time this was posted.

When is the last time it felt like this?

Some areas may actually make it down into the upper 50s tonight.  That would be those low lying areas where the cooler air is more dense and therefore sinks to the lowest locations.  Either way, enjoy!

First Blog Post

Unless the tropics become active this week (which they could late in the week), this looks to be a fairly benign forecast.  That's alright.  We've had several days of showers and t-storms every single day.  It was much needed rain and I've heard many local farmers rejoicing over the rain and now saying they have had enough!  Well God appears to be granting their wish.  Instead of a 60% chance of rain every day Sunday and Monday should be completely dry and I will forecast a 30% chance of rain on Tuesday through Friday.  Those would be those typical afternoon t-storms that develop as a result of the heat and humidity.

I want to give you a link from the NWS that explains a lot about heat and how we can stay safe from heat.  It's sad that we've had young boys practicing football already lose their lives this year as a result of over heating.  I encourage you to click the link for a real lesson on heat and what it does to our bodies.

http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

If I can do anything different concerning this blog, let me know.  I'm here to please you.  What I do know is that you'll see a lot more video than you saw with your last one.  Here's wishing you all a great Sunday!

Jonathan Burleson

Meteorologist